The COVID-19 pandemic.

Written by TR Johns

A COVID-19 DIARY

It is 6am on 25th March 2020, a golden sun is shining through the trees, abundant and melodious bird song fills the air and magnolia buds are on the point of bursting into colourful display. Nature is beckoning the waker to step outside, breath in deeply and imbibe the vibrant hope of Spring which each new morning offers. However, beyond this leafy corner in the outskirts of London, the world is less inviting. Since the declaration, in late January, of an ‘International Public Health Emergency’, the news in post-Brexit Europe has been dominated by the impact of COVID-19. Allegedly spreading from an unregulated meat/seafood market in Wuhan, China, the zoonotic coronavirus has reached 196 countries after two months, with almost 425,000 official cases and 19,000 deaths [i]. In reality the case numbers are significantly higher and the world holds its breath as a classified global pandemic continues to accelerate with exponential growth.

The media have had a field day, both informing and dramatising the situation. Parallels were initially made to the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20 when some 30% of the world’s population was infected (550 million people) and up to 50 million people died. In March 2020 coronavirus has a very different profile; 96% of cases are ‘mild’ and the particularly vulnerable are the elderly and those with respiratory or other serious health problems. What this pandemic does is to ‘stress-test’ the systems and structures of societies around the world, as well as the values of individuals and communities, from national to international and intranational levels. In the west it challenges people’s sense of entitlement and provides a common focus for collective good. Nature meanwhile has a chance to bounce back, as reports come in from across the developed world of fauna emerging and taking advantage of a lack of human activity.

By the height of the summer there had been some 28,000 scientific studies dedicated to COVID-19 & SARS-CoV-2, producing on average 180 articles per day on its origins, symptoms, vaccines & treatments, around the world. In France the first official case had been on 24th January, but after retrospective reanalysis of hospital respiratory cases in Colmar, Alsace, it transpired that COVID-19 was already present on 16th November 2019.

There have been calls for an independent international inquiry into the origins of the virus, as no official explanation has still been given. In the first wave in the UK it was estimated that for ever COVID-death there was an additional non-covid-related death due to ‘interruptions to regular NHS services’ (eg for cancer, heart disease, emergency care and elective procedures).[i] The overall death-toll reaches well beyond the virus.

In early October, entering the winter of 2020, reported global cases stood at 39 million, of which 29 million had recovered (74%), with deaths at 1.1 million (4%). The support bill provided by the UK Government had reached £40 billion. Two months later the figures had surged again; 64 million cases, 44 million recovered (69%) and 1.5 million deaths (3%). People were wearied by months of restrictions and in the US, gripped by election fever, the clamour against restrictions for the sake of civil liberty grew ever stronger. On Tuesday 2nd December the UK Regulator MHRA approved the first vaccine for public inoculation, produced by Pfizer/BioNTech, a German US consortium. Requiring storage at -70˚C and only available in packs of 975 doses, the logistics for its distribution were far from simple.

By the end of January 2021, WHO officials were finally allowed to travel to China to investigate the origins of the pandemic, having been blocked previously. Chinese media celebrated Wuhan’s return to normality, holding it up as an exemplary city, with the authorities making the extraordinary claim that the virus had potentially come to China from elsewhere (eg Australia or Italy), given its apparent presence earlier in the Autumn in countries outside of China. Perhaps its origins will never become clear, but China clearly made mistakes and delays in the initial handling of the outbreak in Wuhan. March saw new cases in the USA falling below 50,000 per day (having peaked at over 200,000), with a $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed by Congress to kick-start the economy and provide an accelerated vaccination programme across the nation. Continental Europe meanwhile was heading into a third lockdown. April saw a surge in India, with official cases topping 350,000 a day. The health system became overwhelmed running out of beds and oxygen, whilst sufferers were simply turned away and left on the streets. Can International aid help to prevent a catastrophe?

During the uncertainties of the coronavirus pandemic people asked how long will this story continue and where is it going? It raised awareness of our vulnerability, mortality, fears and also the resolve of the human spirit to rally for others and to overcome harrowing circumstances. It sits alongside other global challenges beginning to form a 'perfect storm' which will require lifestyles to transition, around the emerging circumstances.

References

[i] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[ii] World at One – Jeremy Hunt, former Health Secretary and Chair of Health Committee. BBC Radio 4. 15-12-20